Cilmi-baaris cusub oo ka timid Cornwall Insight waxay ogaatay in cabbirka cabbirka beeraha qoraxda ay bixinayaan 10-20% qiimaha bixinta adeegyada soo noqnoqda ee Suuqa Korontada Qaranka, in kasta oo hadda ay soo saaraan ku dhawaad 3% tamarta nidaamka.
Ma fududa inaad cagaar noqoto.Mashaariicda qoraxdaWaxay ku xiran yihiin khataro badan si ay ugu soo laabtaan maalgashiga - FCAS waxaa ka mid ah.
Xakamaynta, dib u dhigista isku xidhka, qodobbada khasaaraha yar, nidaamka gudbinta korantada oo aan ku filnayn, faaruqinta tamarta-Federaalka ee socota - liiska tixgalinta iyo wax-ka-qabashada ka iman karta xariiqda hoose ee soolarka ayaa waligood sii kordhaya.Xisaabinta cusub ee ay sameeyeen falanqeeyayaasha tamarta Cornwall Insight waxay hadda ogaadeen in beeraha cadceeddu ay si aan kala sooc lahayn u garab taagan yihiin kharashka sii kordhaya ee bixinta adeegyada xakamaynta soo noqnoqda (FCAS) ee Suuqa Korontada Qaranka (NEM).
Cornwall Insight ayaa sheegaysa in beeraha cadceeddu ay bixiyaan inta u dhaxaysa 10% iyo 20% wadarta guud ee kharashka FCAS bil kasta, marka marxaladan ay soo saaraan kaliya 3% tamarta laga dhaliyo NEM.Marka la barbardhigo, beeraha dabaysha ayaa bixiyay qaar ka mid ah 9% tamarta NEM inta lagu gudajiray sanad maaliyadeedka 2019-20 (FY20), iyo wadarta sababahooda FCAS ee bixinta ayaa celcelis ahaan gaadhay ku dhawaad 10% wadarta kharashyada nidaaminta.
Sababta "wax-bixiyasa" waxa ay tilmaamaysaa inta koronto-dhaliye kasta uu ka leexanayo xadiga toosan ee ay ku kacayaan si uu ula kulmo yoolkooda soo socda ee tamarta diritaanka xilli kasta.
"Tixgelin hawleed cusub oo dib loo cusboonaysiin karo waa mas'uuliyadda in nidaamka sare ee qiimaha FCAS uu keeno faa'iidada mashaariicda tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo ee hadda iyo mustaqbalka," ayuu yidhi Ben Cerini, lataliyaha maamulaha ee Cornwall Insight Australia.
Cilmi-baadhista shirkaddu waxay ogaatay in sababta FCAS ay bixiso kharashyada koronto-dhaliyeyaasha cabbirka cadceedda si taxadar leh udhow $2,368 megawatt kasta sannadkii, ama qiyaastii $1.55/MWh, in kasta oo tani ay ku kala duwan tahay gobollada NEM, iyada oo beeraha qorraxda Queensland ay leeyihiin sababo badan oo bixiya FY20 marka loo eego kuwa ku dhashay gobolada kale.
Cerini waxa ay xustay, “Ilaa 2018, xeerka FCAS kharashku waxa uu isbedbedelay inta u dhaxaysa $10-$40 milyan rubucii.Q2 ee 2020 waxay ahayd rubuc aad u yar marka la barbardhigo isbarbardhigga dhowaan, $ 15 milyan iyada oo saddexdii rubuc ee la soo dhaafay ka hor in ka badan $ 35 milyan rubuc."
Welwelka kala soocida ayaa dhibteeda leh
Dejinta FCAS waxay u ogolaataa Hawl-wadeenka Suuqa Tamarta ee Australia (AEMO) inuu maareeyo weecsanaanta jiilka ama culeyska.Waxyaalaha ugu muhiimsan ee ka qaybqaatay qiimaha FCAS ee aadka u sarreeya ee Q1 sanadkan waxay ahaayeen saddex dhacdo oo lama filaan ah oo "kala-goyn" ah: markii khadadka gudbinta badan ee koonfurta NSW ay burbureen natiijada dabka kaynta, oo ka sooca waqooyiga iyo gobollada koonfureed ee NEM 4tii Janaayo;kala go'ii ugu qaalisanaa, markii Koonfurta Australia iyo Victoria ay jasiirad ahaayeen 18 maalmood ka dib duufaantii curyaamisay xadhkaha gudbinta 31kii Janaayo;iyo kala goynta Koonfurta Australia iyo galbeedka Fiktooriya ee Mortlake Saldhigga Korontada ee NEM ee 2-da Maarso.
Marka NEM ay u shaqeyso sidii nidaam isku xiran FCAS waxaa laga heli karaa shabaqyada oo dhan, taasoo u oggolaanaysa AEMO inay wacdo dalabyada ugu jaban ee bixiyeyaasha sida koronto-dhaliyeyaasha, baytariyada iyo rarka.Inta lagu jiro munaasabadaha kala-tagga, FCAS waa in laga keeno gudaha, iyo xaaladda kala go'a SA iyo Fiktooriya ee 18-cisho ah, waxaa la kulmay kororka sahayda jiilka gaaska ku shaqeeya.
Natiijo ahaan, kharashyada nidaamka NEM ee Q1 waxay ahaayeen $310 milyan, taas oo rikoor $277 milyan ah lagu xardhay ilaa FCAS loo baahan yahay si loo ilaaliyo amniga xadka xaaladahan aan caadiga ahayn.
Ku soo noqoshada nidaamka caadiga ah waxay ku kacaysaa $ 63 milyan Q2, oo FCAS ay ka dhigtay $ 45 milyan, waxay ahayd "badanaa sababtoo ah la'aanta dhacdooyinka kala soocida nidaamka awoodda weyn", AEMO ayaa ku tiri Q2 2020Dhaqdhaqaaqa Tamarta ee Quarterlywarbixin.
Cadceedda baaxadda leh ayaa wax ka geysata hoos u dhaca qiimaha korontada ee jumlada
Isla mar ahaantaana, Q2 2020 waxay arkeen celceliska qiimaha barta korantada jumlada ee gobolka oo gaaray heerarkooda ugu hooseeya tan iyo 2015;iyo 48-68% ka hooseeya sidii ay ahaayeen Q2 2019. AEMO waxay taxday arrimaha ka qayb qaadanaya hoos u dhaca qiimaha jumlada sida: "qiimaha gaasta iyo dhuxusha hoose, fududaynta caqabadaha dhuxusha ee Mount Piper, korodhka roobka (iyo soosaarka biyaha), iyo cusub sahayda dib loo cusboonaysiin karo”.
Wax-soosaarka tamarta dib loo cusboonaysiin karo ee-cabbirka (dabaysha iyo qorraxda) ayaa kordhay 454 MW Q2 2020, taasoo ka dhigan 13% isku darka saadka, laga soo bilaabo 10% Q2 2019.
Tamarta la cusboonaysiin karo ee ugu jaban waxay kordhinaysaa oo keliya ka qayb qaadashada dhimista qiimaha tamarta jumlada;iyo shabakad aad u baahsan oo xoojisay oo isku xidhan oo gudbinaysa, oo ay weheliso xeerarka dib loo eegay ee xukuma xidhiidhka batteriga ee NEM, ayaa haya furaha hubinta helitaanka FCAS qiimo jaban haddii loo baahdo.
Dhanka kale, Cerini ayaa sheegay in horumarinta iyo maalgashadayaasha ay si dhow ula socdaan khatar kasta oo kordhaysa ee kharashka mashruuca: "Sida qiimaha jumlada ah uu hoos u dhacay, iibsashada awoodda iibka ah ee suurtogalka ah ayaa soo gaabisay, iyo qodobbada khasaaraha ayaa isbeddelay," ayuu sharaxay.
Cornwall Insight ayaa calamisay ujeedadeeda ah inay bixiso saadaasha qiimaha FCAS laga bilaabo Sebtembar 2020, in kasta oo noocyada dhacdooyinka sababay in FCAS ay kor u kacdo Q1 ay adagtahay in la saadaaliyo.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee, Cerini ayaa leh, "Daynaha FCAS waxay hadda si adag ugu jiraan ajandaha dadaallada."
Waqtiga boostada: Agoosto-23-2020